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In the conference call AMD hosted last week to discuss its
first quarter results , CEO Lisa Su let slip with a piece of
information that wasn't immediately caught: she said that
Windows 10 would be released in late July .
Microsoft has previously said only that the operating
system would be released in summer , giving it until
September 23, the autumnal equinox, to launch the
operating system. AMD's statement, which naturally
Microsoft has not corroborated, is rather more specific.
Su said on the call that AMD expected the second half of
the year to have a stronger PC market than the first half,
due to the launch of Windows 10. In answering a question
to clarify this, she said that AMD was "factoring in [...] the
Windows 10 launch at the end of July." AMD expects the
new operating system to boost PC sales; perhaps a well
founded belief in the past, but one that has looked a little
shaky in the slowly declining PC market.
As an important Microsoft partner, AMD is no doubt privy
to information that's not public, and as such may well have
more specific details on Windows 10's expected release
than Microsoft has made generally available. But that's not
to say that an outside company is kept completely in the
loop. For example, in April 2013 AMD's Roy Taylor, then
Corporate Vice President of Global Channel sales, said that
DirectX was dead and that there would be no DirectX 12 ,
something which turned out to be untrue . DirectX 12 is to
be one of the big technical improvements included in
Windows 10.
The current public builds of Windows 10 still feel quite
rough, with important applications such as the new Project
Spartan browser clearly nowhere near their finished state.
Windows 10 is a substantial release. Many of the built-in
applications are being rebuilt, including core apps like Mail
and Calendar. The Start Menu and Start Screen have both
been rewritten, turning them into hybrids of Windows 7 and
8. On the inside, the graphics stack has an updated driver
model built to support DirectX 12. The new apps, browser,
and Start experience are all currently unfinished and all
highly visible.
Microsoft has seen what happens when it doesn't give
users an experience they like—the operating system is
called Windows 8, and its reception was at best mediocre—
and can't be in any hurry to repeat that misstep. While the
launch of a new operating system is always important,
Windows 10, with its promise of universal apps that can
span tablet, desktop, Xbox One, phone, and one day even
HoloLens, is more important than most; the future of client-
side Windows development is riding on this release. That's
why Microsoft is offering it as a free update to Windows 7
and 8 users: it's desperate for developers to build Windows
10 universal apps that run on the full range of Windows 10
platforms.
If, like Windows 8, Windows 10 launches feeling rushed and
unfinished, this effort will be derailed. As such, the July
date is a little surprising, and a little alarming. The final
feature set and design of Windows 10 aren't even nailed
down yet; Microsoft is still asking for feedback and voting
for features (most recently about Windows 10's virtual
desktops). Microsoft's openness to feedback and user
opinions are certainly welcome (and a significant change
from the approach taken during Windows 8's development),
but it means that changes are being made much later in the
operating system's development, which is potentially
disruptive and creates new scope for delays.
This doesn't mean that the July date is wrong, of course. It
could just mean that Microsoft has a ton of work to do
between now and then in order to put the operating system
into a polished, shippable state. It's not impossible. But if
Microsoft doesn't pull it off and releases the software
anywhere, the cost could be immense.